We provide an in-depth statistical analysis of full soccer matches and view the soccer world with an American slant.
Focus: United States Men and Youth National Teams.
Thanks to a live stream and ESPN 360 I had the pleasure of experiencing a restful soccer Sabbath with Indiana v. San Diego St and UCLA v. Maryland. I missed the first half of the IU game but here's the post-game scoreboard:
Now I'm not one to give the scoreboard's stats too much credit but I would like to point out the 19-2 corner kick stat. IU was clearly better than SDSU today but SDSU smartly packed the box and the Hoosiers couldn't offer too much variety in their attack. They crowd the middle of the field and leave the wings underutilized, which is somewhat understandable as their service is below average (typically balls are sent in too low and not with great accuracy). Here's an example of the Hoosiers' crowdedness:
(Apparently they played two ten minute golden goal halves without penalty kicks for whatever reason but more of the same.)
If I had to rank the four programs... wolf. Something like UCLA, Maryland, IU, [big gap] SDSU. Maryland is a very strong team that will transfer well to the MLS or wherever they go but UCLA looks more technically sound and will likely out possess most of their opponents this season. And UCLA has Earl Edwards, "the latest in a line of standout U.S. goalkeepers". He also sat the bench last season. IU plays with a real blue collar aggressiveness (that awarded them 19 corners in 90 minutes of play) I really appreciate that sort of game play but creatively they're lacking (as seen above). Defensively I think there are some question marks as well but nothing to dread over. SDSU seem to be coached very well but show no offensive attack whatsoever. Of all the teams Eriq Zavaleta definitely stood at the most. A hard-fighting striker that has the physicality to make a push at the next level.
Oh and some dudes are going to play Jamaica or something.
Congrats to Brian Illoski on making it to the final 16 in the Nike Academy. Apparently Illoski impressed coming off the bench with these two goals (1:05, 1:35). I know nothing about the young Academy nor Illoski other than he competed at a relatively high intensity against players from across the globe. Nike did an mas o menos job on covering the event by giving us lots of insight that didn't really have a lot of depth. Even their own website is a little dated but at first it looks really cool.
Random Soccer
Lots of action on the European ground so naturally I'm going to zoom past all that and talk about a much more important subject: soccer cinema. I watched two films this past weekend. The first was Jay DeMerit's documentary Rise and Shine. Wow what an awesome story. I know that's really unprofessional to say but seriously wow. So cool that he knew what his dream was and pursued it until the end. I wish his passion wasn't treated as a phenomenon but instead as the standard. I suppose the problem with that is that people don't chase their goals as much because they don't know what their own goals are.
As far as the documentary went, they did a very studious job of retracing DeMerit up until his first season at Watford and then it gets very spotty. I wish they had given some more focus on the USMNT side of things, like making the cut for the World Cup roster or more coverage on his World Cup play. Especially that laaast goal we conceded. At least from his perspective. All-in-all, a really interesting story of someone chasing their dream. Light-hearted and about soccer so a clear win-win. Here's the trailer:
Also I watched this wonderfully bizarre film:
Seriously if you have 15 minutes to be completely baffled I highly recommend this film. It's entitled Muzene Hry. The plot: "A man sits down to watch a football match, which seems to consist of the
players being violently mutilated in various inventive ways. The
players then leave the football pitch and invade the spectator's flat"
I finally got around to watching the first half of Indiana University v. Chivas de Guadalajara's U23 team so I could see Andrew Oliver in action for the first time since U17 CONCACAF Qualifying. I'm pretty excited about him. First off, he's starting for a championship-contending team as a freshmen. He played on the right wing and while most of the play went through the left side (through B1G pre-season notables Kotlov and Zavaleta) Oliver still possessed a keen eye for the ball. On offense he's moving all the time, looking to get inserted and on defense he's looking to poach a lazy pass and ignite a counter. Real smart, heads up play. You can tell he's not completely settled as he's still young but I think he can be a great winger. His vision, foresight, experience, and speed will be a deadly combination.
In CONCACAF Champions League, the MLS is off to a strong start in group play. They're currently 5-1 with giving up only six goals in the six games. I'd expect 3-4 teams to advance to the eight team playoff. Toronto will have a tough time with Santos Laguna while RSL or Houston might slip up with Herediano and Olimpia, respectively. But larger point, MLS is looking strong compared to her southern brothers. Cousins. Whatevers.
Lastly, here are three interesting tweets about the MLS in the CCL:
We found out last night that the newspaper in Houston was not covering Dynamo #CCL game because they "weren't traveling to Mexico".
— Total MLS (@TotalMLS) August 23, 2012
The Dynamo played in El Salvador. Meanwhile their writer from that newspaper was covering a slowpitch softball game featuring Roger Clemens.
— Total MLS (@TotalMLS) August 23, 2012
These are an example of the hurdles soccer coverage still faces in the US. #MLS
— Total MLS (@TotalMLS) August 23, 2012
A little dated by I really like Altidore's movement here:
Numbers in high school athletic participation. Soccer sits 7th in schools in Most Popular Boys Programs and 5th in participants. The next obvious stat to take is how many boys are in each program (x / y). Here's the list:
You have to remember JV + Freshmen teams, especially for football. Some pretty interesting numbers there. Would saying "On average there are 35 boys that what to play soccer at every school in America" be fair? Ehhhh... Maybe a little high considering we left out 10-15 thousand schools across the country...
Another little project I've been working on here and there. I go through a new "project" about once every three months but I've been
coming back to this one for a while now. It's a gauge on a player's
likelihood of reaching Brazil 2014 based off as much info as I can get
my hands on. Basically a 0-100 percent of them making the final 23. A
bit bold but no more so than the 2018 WC Roster prediction (which I
love).
I tweak the numbers once a month after international games, long-term
club performances, and how many people post about how awful/great he
here and there. All-in-all, I'm trying to find a mix of public
perception and reach into Klinsmann's mind at the same time to be able
to look back and see where players were flourishing/diminishing. Not an
exact science so don't freak out. The 1's at the bottom are thrown down
there on a whim. I'm sure we could all think of 5 more guys who should
be on there so if you want to take a sharpie and write them in on your
computer screen be my guest. Open to suggestions/comments/questions.
Enjoy.
New here and all the jargon a bit
overwhelming? Been coming back for some time and the jargon is still
overwhelming? Then check out the stat definitions to (hopefully) get a
better grasp on things.
I'm not one to get too emotionally invested in the USMNT. They will lose winnable games; Your favorite player(s) won't get called in; They won't fulfill their potential etc etc. But you always have to have hope. That's why sports are great. The glimmer of hope at the start of every game that, regardless of how much ESPN or all the message boards in the world say "Team A is going to crush Team B", the two teams are on even footing. 0-0. And anything can happen. All the things that aren't "supposed" to happen can happen. It's a great feeling. And usually all of that goes out the window 99 times out of 100. Most of the time it's pretty quickly. Team USA dunks all of its first 22 points to get out to a commanding 22-3 lead… You're still learning the controls when a "friend" joysticks around your button mashing defenders to take a 1-0 lead with 2:56 on the clock… And sometimes the #16 team hangs around until the fourth quarter but… we all know what's really going to happen.
I was so bummed at the previews for this game. I could go post them, and as a historian I feel somewhat inclined to, but I think that'd be more counter-product than anything. Just believe me when I say that USMNT writers and fans alike were praying for a 1-1 tie. But I can't do that. We always have the chance to win. We have to. Or else my fandom is based on probability and not the hope of something great.
I'll admit, I can be quoted to say "Man, this game is going to end 0-0. Or only one goal is going to be scored." USMNT's play outside of their own 18 yard box was pitiful. It reminded me of the most recent Brazil game. You could just see the fear and second-guessing in every player's eyes. You can't really blame them. Azteca isn't exactly a Mattress Giant outlet. And while there's no proof of it on the internet or in my journal, I expected them to win the game. Not because I think USA is better than Mexico, because I don't, but because that's my duty as a fan. I'm not the perfect fan, far from it, but that's #1 in a fan's rulebook. See look…
#1. Your team will win. #2. If your team did not win, they will win next time.
'K now it's in print. And even if they didn't win, boom. There's rule #2. Again, hope.
Enough, enough. I get it. Okay tactics.
When Mexico had the ball - Mexico found the flanks relatively easy and with great success. Long, crossing balls were brought down skillfully complemented with acres of space. They pushed the ball as far down the line as they could then…
80% - crossed into the box
10% - connected with a teammate
90% - USA defense clear
20% - dropped for dribble + combination play around corner of the 18
10% - turnover of some sort
10% - decent opportunity
(Those stats aren't really based on anything
other than my memory, fyi.) Cameron anchored the back line and while he
was not flawless, essentially shut down Chicharito for most of the game.
Edu played very well. I actually liked the combination of the two +
Beckerman (CDM) in the middle of the field because our pool of CBs is
very aggressive. Bocanegra, Goodson, Ream (somewhat), Orozco… They all
sprint towards the player with the ball, which isn't really there job.
(Parkhurst does a good job of staying back.) Yeah, sometimes you need to
step but ideally the CDM plays that aggressive stopper position, not
the CBs. And definitely not both of them. Here are some goals against
the USMNT where CBs and/or CDMs did not do their jobs:
Ideal situation is CBs sit back (for the most of the part) while the CDM roams the gap in front ofthem. Unfortunately Jones can't do this. Neither can Bradley. Or won't. I don't know. But neither do it. They're great at adding to the attack, especially Bradley, and I would put them both in my starting eleven but they don't know how to defend off the ball. So I really believe this game was won because of Cameron + Edu + Beckerman, which stifled every Mexican attack. Oh and Howard, goodness gracious, Howard. I'm so confident of this I'll put it in bold. Cameron + Edu + Beckerman + Howard won this game. Or, more importantly, didn't lose this game. Mexico had to go down the wings because the middle was shut down. The defense could have been better though, had the weak side winger dropped off and given five defenders on the back line. Castillo looked bad (for a numerous amount of reasons) but it didn't help that Torres and then Beasley in the second half couldn't drop off and help with the defense. And don't think defending with five makes it impossible to attack. It's actually set up perfectly for the near-cliche American counter-attack with the added defender. The space opens up up top and all of our defenders can go forward because of their midfield experience. I'll draw some maps soon to show you what I'm talking about.;{ )
When USA had the ball - Uh… having trouble remembering. (possession stats). You know how teams get down to the 18 regularly, pepper the frame, but can't find a goal? Yeah this was nothing like that. We couldn't even get past midfield. It was bad. No one was on the same page. The wingers weren't doing their jobs. The strikers were outnumbered. The CMs were playing bad balls or taking too many touches… In a nutshell: _______ was our offense. As in nothing. We had almost zero offense. And somehow scored a goal.
...but still, what a glorious night.
Player Ratings
+8.9 - Cameron - 87% (12…10.4/1.6…90') - Missed a couple of headers that Chiciritro couldn't connect on but otherwise effectively shut him down all game. EPL, yes sir.
+7.3 - Howard - 93% (8.5…7.9/0.6…90') - The only thing I can think that he did wrong was a punch that went down back in a crowd. Could he have used two hands on the already immaculate saves? Eh. Maybe. But he didn't need to, clearly.
+6.6 - Edu - 80% (11…8.8/2.2…90')- The great CDM -> CB conversion worked out well here, especially against a team that's going to exploit the middle of a defense. Not sure what the future holds but on this night he shined.
+5 - Johnson - 78% (9…7/2…90') - Efficient all night. Never got beat. Wasn't involved in the offense a ton because there wasn't any offense.
+4 - Beckerman - 72% (9…6.5/2.5…90')- I may be a little bit hasher on Beckerman than most but I distinctly remember him trying to pass the ball and it just went out of bounds for a corner. But for all the offensive question marks he seems to be the only CDM who can defender off the ball. Well, okay, Edu as well but Jones and Bradley can't/wont' do it. So major props for Beckerman in playing his actual position.
+2.4 - Boyd - 74% (5…3.7/1.3…45') - Clearly the back heel was not a pass. Not even a question about it. Still good to see him in the play and be that creative under pressure. +1.6 - Shea - 81% (2.5…2/0.5…15') - Sparked the offense immediately being on the field. I 'm still worried about his vision when crossing because the double assist pass was actually pretty poor. +1.6 - Orozco - 82% (2.5…2.1/0.5…15') - Well if you score a goal that's pretty good in my book. +1.4 - Gomez - 60% (7…4.2/2.8…75') - Should have scored in the first ten minutes with the meatball across the box and not been such an actor about the foul that will hardly ever get called. Still a fan of Gomez but not his best night. +1.4 - Zusi - 73% (3…2.2/0.8…30') - Pretty forgettable but the offense jumped up a notch with him and Shea in there and he obviously had better luck than Williams on the field.
+0.6 - Donovan - 57% (4…2.3/1.7…45') - 12/17 on passing with 7 turnovers. Not his best night. +0.5 - Castillo - 53% (8…4.2/3.8…75') - The biggest negative I have against Castillo is that he instills no confidence to anyone when he is in the area. The attack came down his side all night for a reason; not because he is going to mess up every time, but because he is the most likely to mess up.
+0.3 - Jones - 52% (8.5…4.4/4.1…89') - Turned the ball over twelve times. Could not figure out when to counter and when to hold back.
+0.3 - Williams - 53% (5.5…2.9/2.6…60') - 4/9 on passing which means he was better at passing the ball at the other team than his own.
+0.1 - Beasley - 52% (3…1.6/1.4…45') - A little out of sync with the team but wasn't aided by his teammates too much.
+0 - Torres - 50% (3…1.5/1.5…45') - Pretty invisible despite his "heat index" being a 42. The best answer to this that I can think of is that, yes, he did, things but nothing that really added to the team's progression of the ball..
I've been meaning to do this for a while but here are my favorite goals US Soccer goals. This technically includes all USMNT, US youth teams, and USWNT goals. But as I'm not up to date on USWNT goals they are currently absent from the list... I'll have to find a couple I have in mind and throw them on here. Or probably not because I never finish any task ever.
(98) Landon Donovan v. Algeria - 2010 - Easily the most sentimental goal. Pretty fitting that it was Donovan to finish but what if it were Dempsey? Not in the video but Howard's cannon starts this counter, btw.
(96) Nathan Smith v. Canada U17 - Every time I watch it I'm always surprised it goes in. Hope his future is as successful as this shot was.
(87) Landon Donovan v. Slovenia - 2010 - Aim for the head. How badass is that?
(86) Benny Feilhaber v Mexico - Please come back to the USMNT, Benny.
(86) Alejandro Guido v. Czech Republic - Annoyed FIFA won't let me embed this... Look how far off the goalie is from the shot. He yells at his defense but if someone is going to shoot like that... What can you do?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uPTuwVBKPw (85) Andrew Oliver v. Canada U17 - Does Dempsey v. Jamaica before Dempsey does it. So composed.
(85) Clint Dempsey v. Jamaica - Not as important as some of the other goals around here but still very crafty. Love the heads up play by Dempsey.
(84) DeAndre Robinson v. France U17 - The curling ball away from the goalie seals it for me. What a rip.
(84) Michael Bradley v. Slovenia - 2010 - The overshadowed goal from the game. Pretty tough to shoot a ball up with the underbelly of your shoe.
(84) Jozy Altidore v. Spain - 2009 - What a beast. Hilarious that Spain just poops their pants here.
(83) Charlie Davies v. Egypt - 2009 - What a fight to the finish. Feel kind of bad for the Egyptian goalie. Reminds me of Howard v. Mexico in the Gold Cup.
80,203 people witnessed the continual dominance of American women. I thought Canada gave the US more run for their money but either way I was still thoroughly impressed. Surfing around NBC, Solo's save reel caught my attention and I felt called enough to break it down the four highlights.
1. Good push up onto the bar and awareness to realize the ball was still in play. I think I'm more impressed by how quick she gets up than the original save. (Maybe because her defense decided to pass the ball back to the shooter for whatever reason.) She gets up using more of her legs than arms, which sounds easy but takes some training to do like she did.
2. (What a tackle by Buehler.) Pretty sure Solo had some brothers she played football with growing up to take this hit and keep going. Also good directing out there by Solo. I like the set up a lot.
3. I had to watch this part about six times because I kept getting distracted by the atrocious defense on the play. I think the Japanese striker bumps Solo off the ball but Solo does a great job of staying on her feet (think "Brick House") and has to see through a forest of players incapable of hitting a ball thirty yards. I love that they're willing to sacrifice their bodies to stop a goal but let's go people. Get the ball out.
4. Such a bizarre play. I don't think Solo was trying to be this out of position but then again she pretty much makes the striker shoot where she wants her to. Sooo.. I don't know. A head scratcher to say the least. I think what the goalie textbook would say is to charge the player after her first touch. But Tanaka takes such a small, controlled touch that she could probably beat a sprinting Solo with another touch to the side... She made the save and that's what matters. Part two of this play she needs to smother the ball what means necessary. I think she gets caught in between trying to go on her side and stomach and her arms don't know what to do, which forces the fumble.
In more y-chromosome-based news, the 2012 Generations Adidas Cup came to a close for U17 and U15 teams. The lowly-publicized tournament will only be remembered in these videos that I had to mute because I don't like the Rocky theme song that much.
Random Soccering
Continuing on the goalie tangent, there is a 25 year old goalie named Caleb Patterson-Sewell playing in Portugal for Vitoria FC. With the departure of Diego Costa Silva, the starting spot appears open for the taking. I'm not sure who the front runners are but I've found five goalies tied to the club. The players with their respective FIFA 12 ratings:
I found multiple sources on who was actually playing for Vitoria so I'm sure some of those players have moved on but it should be a crowded field for the ex-Carolina RailHawk. Here's a highlight film of the goalie. Strong, confident, as any good American goalkeeper is. I'm not thrilled on how low his hands are in his starting position but if a certain Spanish goalkeeper can do it I'm not too worried about him overcoming it.
If you could only imagine how frustrated teachers were with my late projects and assignments...
Okay once again here's a new segment that I am aptly naming "Soccerings of the Day". The goal is to post every day semi-daily one relevant news-worthy link that is somewhat related to American soccer. And for funsies I might throw in video or article or bizarre gif.
Americans went 2-1 on advancing in the UEFA Champions League. Collectively they were +14 on the goal differential though, if that's worth anything. Sacha Kljestan (Anderlecht, Belgium.1) and Bryan Gerzicich (Ironi Kiryat Shmona, Israel.1) moved on to the final forty two while an injured Joshua Gatt couldn't help Molde advance. Here's the results from the third qualifying round:
If Anderlecht and Ironi Kiryat Shmona can get win their next round they'll enter the group stage, where Jermaine Jones' FC Schalke 04 await, amongst 21 other teams for a total of 32. Nothing confusing about that.
Random Thing
Looked like Bobby Wood's career hasn't gone completely down the drain. I've been high on him for a while and I'm more than excited to see him scoring goals again. Check them out below...
(I'm not sure this is illegal but I don't think it's encouraged)
Nothing flashy but still pretty exciting seeing him run around and kicking balls and whatnots.
If you are an aspiring physics teacher you now have the answer to "Why do we have to learn this stuff?" It's so you can write a blog post, that maybe 50 people will see, defending one of the greatest goalies that has ever played for the United States of America.
I was a little put out at the negative response towards Howard after the Guatemala capitalized their free kick that ended up tying the game 1-1. The response wasn't overwhelming, to be honest, and I suppose there's always going to be harsh opinions floating around on the web but I was still annoyed with it nonetheless. People are always quick to blame a goalkeeper but strikers are continually let off the hook for not finishing chances. This fueled my inner lawyer and plus who doesn't like to do recreational math during the summer?
Before I go all Sports Science on you guys, let me say that while I do believe that Tim Howard is the obvious number one goalkeeper for us I do believe he is able to make mistakes. I talked about it in the Brazil game and, while I haven't written a review, he basically fell out of the way of the Antigua and Barbuda goal. I thought he looked sharp for the Canada game and even against Guatemala he was looking good. I'm having trouble finding a decent enough highlight reel but he had a point blank save just prior to the goal that kept the game 1-0.
There will be a time where another goalie will fill his void but for now he's our number one.
Moving on, let's examine the play. In about one
fourth speed it looks like Tim Howard lazily watches a free kick enter
the goalmouth only two steps away from him. You can see it here.
Howard sets up his
wall pretty well. Front and back post are covered. To score, Guatemala's Marco Pappa can only hit about a fifth of
the goal. Still dangerous but not a PK. The only negative here is that
Howard can't see the ball when the shot is taken. There's some movement
prior to the kick and he ends up leaning to his right to get a better
view. (You can see his head lean in the third picture.) This slight movement, I believe, stops him from making the save.
The shot covers 19.56 yards in about .8 seconds. This puts it around 50 mph. Not the fastest shot ever but still a decent blast. Howard can't react until he sees the ball and the ball doesn't become visible until it rises right over the wall, about 10.67 yards from goal.
This cuts Howard's reaction time to .436 seconds. Now some dimensions...
A squared plus B squared equals saving a shot squared. Howard's hands are a little low in the picture but they should be around 3'3" from the ground. (Luckily I am Howard's height so this was easy to figure out.) I assumed two inches from the bar was adequate to save the shot and with some more math I figured out he has to move his hands 68.6 inches to save the ball, or 5 feet 8.6 inches. To cover the distance in the allotted time (.436 seconds) he has to move at 8.94 mph, which should mean nothing to anyone because who knows how fast hands move on average. I don't.
I measured a spot 5' 8.6" from my own roof and timed myself on moving my hands the distance. On average I did it in .3 seconds (my poor iPhone doesn't do hundredths). Some times I did it in .2 but I felt like I jumped the gun those times. And it was about 8 out of 10 times I got .3 so that felt accurate. We can trust my reaction speed because of my stellar goalkeeping record (check out "most losses").
So Howard had .436 seconds to make a reaction save that would take around .3 seconds. But this doesn't take into account a couple of other things. It's pretty easy to move your hands 6 feet when you know the exact destination ahead of time and you have all the time to prepare yourself. Howard is being forced into a reflex save and doesn't know when it's coming or where it's going. The ball is also bending away from Howard so maybe getting a couple of fingers on it isn't enough. Also he'd be going up with his left hand, his weak hand. Taking all of these things into account, Howard could have saved it but can we expect a save at least 50% of the time there (aka a save he should make)? I don't think so. I would have loved to see Howard make any step except backwards into his goal but demanding perfection every time is unreasonable. Maybe he set too many people in the wall that ended up blocking his vision which delayed his reflex. I saw this tweet...
Just saw Pappa's goal from last nite. Howard yelled at Altidore 4 times to tell him he couldn't see an Jozy didn't move. #stupidplayer
— David Aneser (@The_Real_DA) June 13, 2012
Tough to say. The funny thing is that most people who are expecting a save could only respond to "What could he have done better?" with "Well just save it. It's right there." There's hardly any legitimate critique of the play.
Had Howard saved the shot everyone would have gone bonkers, anyway.
New here? Here's a brief introduction to USMNT Hopefuls.Comments welcomed!
The future of the US isn't looking too bad, guys.
Yet another tweak. I combined the "Old Guys" and young guns into one sheet. The column on the far left is the expected remaining cap tally for the players. If those numbers seem high then just know Donovan has a pretty decent shot at 200 caps. I've got him projected at 191 but I could imagine the push for 200...
I orange'd players who hold dual nationality. Since there were more than I originally thought, I put the country they hold duality with and the likelihood of them going south (solely my guess). Several youngsters have gone through our youth programs and switching this late is rare, but not unheard of. I still think Chandler will go US but he will largely be reminded for his hesitancy despite he continual plea that he wants to play for the US.
The only player I expect to not play for the US is Raul Mendiola. He's been leaning Mexico despite being called into US camps a couple times. Ryan Meara is a bit of a shot in the dark for me. I don't think New York's denial for him to go play with Ireland's youth team means anything. But I do think if he has a legitimate shot at being the number one goalie for the US it'd be hard for him to not come our way.
Just to be clear, a player isn't tied to a specific country until they play in a meaningful tournament. So for the US that would be World Cup Qualifying, Gold Cup, or Confederations Cup. They can apply for a switch after they are cap-tied but FIFA rarely grants a switch. And if a player is playing in a meaningful tournament they likely have thought out the repercussions of their actions.
Several players are currently with the senior US team. I put their names in dark blue. Altidore is getting some competition from Gomez, which is a good thing.
Some U20 players traveled to play Chile and Uruguay. The only standout name I've seen was Victor Pineda's. (They lost to a strong Uruguay side twice and to Chile once.)
Some U18 players traveled to Portugal for the Lisbon tournament. I say that name as if the tournament has some prestige but it's incredibly hard to find out anything on the tournament. In three games the US went 0-2-1 allowing just two goals but only scoring one. The young men has gotten favorable reviews but from their own website, no less. (Marc Pelosi was out with an injury.)
Luis Gil is injured but not for long. A stretched ligament should keep him out for the rest of the month.
Joe Corona and Terrence Boyd were recently cap tied. Congratulations are in order.
Hamid, Johnson, and Meara are continually on MLS's Save of the Week.
Williams' picked up an injury that kept him from WC Qualifying. He'll be back for Mexico, I imagine.
A couple of moves. Boyd found a new club in Austria. Playing time wasn't coming his way from Dortmund's senior squad so he found one that would give it to him. Here's Rapid's FIFA 12 squad. Don't expect Boyd to stay here for too long.
Juan Agudelo is really enjoying California.
Bobby Wood was released by the 1860 Munich. (If you can't read German just believe me.) It seems his injury was too much of a risk for Munich to gamble on.
Guzan was released from Aston Villa (imagine a mutual break up) and is currently a free agent. Guzan is also seeking first team minutes and believes he can play in a top league's team. Interesting write up here.
While a couple of players moved around, don't expect others to. Alitdore is in a good position at AZ for another season and any move would only be lateral as he still has some room to grow. Holden will likely stay with Bolton as I'm fairly sure he isn't a large cap hit on the recently relegated team. And Lichaj is expected to stay at Aston Villa with his strong finish on the season.
Bijev tore up the Houston Dynamo Academy. See if you can find him. (hint: he scores all the goals):
Dilly Duka has yet to play 90 minutes this MLS season...
Rowe and Benny Feilhaber (33 remaining caps, total of 72) both picked up a goal and assist against Chicago
College soccer starts up this fall. A lot of youngsters playing across the great American coasts.
Else, it's been quite in this lull between seasons.
It all started with continuing frustration with solely result-based rankings systems. I'm not against computers calculating ratings for us in theory. In fact I subscribed to Ken Pomeroy's website last year in attempt to make my March Madness bracket not awful. (Had I stuck to his ratings I would have won my pool, actually.) And while I do appreciate the transparent of FIFA's current rating system, it isn't adequate enough. We can not rank teams, that routinely send their second string players, only based off how many goals did they score/allow.
So this project is an attempt to rank every international team. The idea is similar to calculating one's GPA. Every team's players get rated 1-100 (hopefully by someone who knows what they're talking about) and then they're given an expected minutes played number.
So the scenario is, if the World Cup was in one
month and every team had a month to prepare it's squad to play, who
would be chosen, what would their ratings be, and how many minutes would
they play on average? You have to factor in long term injuries but current fitness issues you
could likely ignore. For example, Stuart Holden will likely make the
actual World Cup squad but for now I have to keep him off as he is
recovering from a massive knee injury. This is who we would expect to see, not who we think should be on the pitch. For example, this is what I'd expect to see for
USA's squad:
Rating - Player (Position) mins
81 - Howard (GK) 90 mins
73 - Cherundolo (RB) 70 mins
71.5 - Bocanegra (CB) 85 mins
69.5 - Goodson (CB) 70 mins
72.5 - Johnson (LB) 80 mins
74.5 - Bradley (CDM) 90 mins
76.5 - Jones (CDM) 80 mins
70 - Torres (CM) 60 mins
82 - Dempsey (LW) 90 mins
80.5 - Donovan (RW) 90 mins
74 - Altidore (ST) 75 mins
71.5 - Chandler (RB) 15 mins
70.5 - Lichaj (RB) 5 mins
69 - Parkhurst (CB/RB) 5 mins
68 - Onyewu (CB) 13 mins
69 - Cameron (CB) 7 mins
69.5 - Castillo (LB) 10 mins
69.5 - Edu (CM) 15 mins
70.5 - Beckerman (CM) 10 mins
68 - Boyd (ST) 3 mins
70 - Gomez (ST) 25 mins
68 - Wondolowski (ST) 2 mins
(For the reader, I gave Howard a 81 rating and expect him to play 90 minutes.)
What This Is Not
This is not a World Cup roster prediction. Nor is this a logical roster prediction. Yes there are 23 players listed above but there is only one goalie and ten defenders. Eight defenders would be considered above average for WC play. Also the limited time doesn't indicate a substitution. It simply means that on average, we could expect Goodson to play 70 minutes. Maybe he sits out one game completely and plays another three full games.
This is not a perfect rating system. There never will be one. But at the very least we could not have bad ones. There are several things we could never predict and taking outlying factors into consideration would be incredibly tough. I think France in South Africa 2010 is a great example.
Rankings
Special thanks to BigSoccer.com as most of the forums were incredibly polite and helpful in painting the national picture for me. Typically I just wander around the USA forums
but for this project I dipped into each available country and got a ton of
positive feedback, which was really cool.
If you want to fix/edit another country let me know. (You can
navigate through the tabs atop the page). I'm sure the CONCACAF is
pretty inaccurate and some people aren't thrilled Senegal is 23rd. The
cool thing about this is that you can say "Oh X team shouldn't be that
high because X player is overrated and should X number instead." instead
of "That's wrong boo that sucks." Although it's always been funny to me that people look at rankings only to find mistakes
though. You never hear "Oh they got such and such teams right..." It's
always about what the biggest mistake is. So please, objectively tell me what I can do to be more correct. I realize this is a big overtaking and should be taken with a grain of
salt but I thought it'd still be interesting to compile. If you have any
questions/corrections let me know.
(And I still haven't done
the most recent USMNT Hopefuls... Ah...)
New here and all the jargon a bit
overwhelming? Been coming back for some time and the jargon is still
overwhelming? Then check out the stat definitions to (hopefully) get a
better grasp on things.
I've read a superior review of the Canada-USA that I could ever write and it is here. However I'll hit on a few things before I end this modest review just so I don't mail it in.
Canada came out with a very athletic team. They wisely packed the box (sending all 11 players back on a corner kick) and countered fast. While technically they weren't the best they were well coached and saw the game with decent vision.
America controlled possession and looked to string passes through the thick Canadian defense with mild success. Most of the top six players held no strict boundaries as to where you could expect them on the field. For a weak defense this would tear them apart but Canada's organization overcame a jumbled midfield attack, which ultimately turned into just a crowded section of the field instead of expanding it not only width-wise but also vertically. (MLS did an interesting comparison here on the Brazil game and the Canada game. My counter argument would be that the chart doesn't take into account off the ball movement and that multiple players can't possess the ball at one time. Gomez, specifically, makes several off the ball runs to the corners that the MLS does not track on its heat maps. Along this note, if overall passing percentages are down it may be because of the clouded midfield, which would be because players are "out of position" or intentionally not in their position. Just a theory.)
America offered no variety to Canada's strong defense, which is very interesting because historically (although it's been at least a year since) we've hit too many balls over the top instead of being patient. Sunday saw a polar opposite performance with a CM-led offense that was more than content to pass back. If you're having trouble solving a defense, which America was, you have to feed them variety to start getting results. Yes, maybe an over the top ball that one time would be a waste, but the next possession the defense will be expecting something over the top and they will start inching back, giving you space in the middle. It's a give and take and America did neither this game.
Wynalda had a really interesting quote in this fantastic review of his surging Cal FC, "We find talent and we start coaching them, and that’s when we start ruining them." I can see where he's coming from and, while I won't name any names, it's hard to disagree when your home team is full of athletes that can do nothing with the ball except kick it forward. There is a middle ground to reach of not complete chaos but also not over-coaching the players. I think Wynalda would be proud of the team Klinsmann is trying to run. I remember Klinsmann saying something along the lines of how he's not really trying to motivate the players because if they're not motivated by now then he can't help them. (I think this sounds a little extreme and it's not like Klinsmann doesn't offer praise.) He went on to add how he lets the play through most things in practice, not stopping every second to correct something. Sunday looked like a product of several things. Klinsmann letting the players play, Canada performing very well, and some slight tiredness from the players. Most of the game Klinsmann sat on the bench, which is very unlike him from what I have seen in the past. Most of the time he is standing, yelling/encouraging his players.
Here are my tweets from @soccer_subj. Not a ton as the game was very repetitive:
I think I'm sitting behind Canada's warm up goal. Don't recognize the coaches.
USA fan has "BACK TO BACK WORLD WAR CHAMPS". I wonder if he knows no one has ever defeated Canada in Canada.
Or about wars we fought after WWII...
Man with "MICHIGAN 26" USA jersey... 26th state? I don't think that's right. Maybe favorite number. [[Turns out 26th state was correct. Odd thing to put on a jersey.]]
We love Timmy Howard chant even though he's across the field.
In AO section so I don't know about tweeting... We'll see.
Teams on the field.
Canada does not know how to handle American Outlaws.
Canada looks really lame and it's just warm ups. I'll be disappointed if we score less than 4.
Blanking on name but Boston College standout Kyle Becker (?) should start every game for Canada. He's amazing. [[Kyle Bekker* - vids for you]]
Very modest Canada fan section #CANvUSA
Rimando back up in this and Brazil game. I prefer Guzan but maybe Klins is trying to get him PT.
Now a "Back to back World War champs" chant breaks out. Ugh.
Lay off drill atop the 18 and either it's a placed shot on target or wide. Pretty miserable.
Pretty amazing how the top Canadian goalkeepers have such bad form.
Should have stuck with hockey and "safety country" chants.
Canada walks out some old guys and the women's team? If they wanted to really stick it to us they'd bring out the U23s
Pretty loud USA chant. National Anthem to follow. Should be good.
Canada has some really sweet kits. Probably the best thing about them.
Personally I would be completely okay with a USA chant during Canada's national anthem but I was in the minority.
Scrappy 20 year old brunette kid is doing a great job of leading everything. Very impressed.
Wow Canada's blue kits are awesome. So fresh.
You could be state 51 chant. Awesome.
Dempsey and others not excited about how physical Canada's top forward is playing. [[He grabbed some player's leg after a tackle. No call either way.]]
Torres and Castillo are going to tear Canada's right side all day. [[Castillo somewhat did. Torres not so much.]]
Canada's CB's main defense against a counter is fouling. Unbelievable.
Torres runs to Donovan on the corner. Two defenders follow, one from the post. Take the corner! Two defender down?? Yes please!
Guys behind me really upset that you can't buy beer on their gas stations. [[Literally mentioned this close to six times throughout the game.]]
An occasional over the top ball wouldn't hurt. Gotta push the defense back.
Bradley is not a true CDM and Castillo if not a true LB.
Your bacon's just ham "Suburb of Buffalo" and "America's hat" chants. Ha.
Canada playing super lame soccer but USA playing annoyingly conservative.
Ref really "letting them play" (aka not calling any shoving fouls).
US not looking any nastier.
Canada putting all 11 in the box on defending a corner.
It should not take us 30 minutes to figure out this team. Good attacks but too much time wasted.
Pretty weak half. Just yawned to prove it.
Boca and Goodson with excellent tracking back.
Goodson having a really good game. Although this is his environment to excel in.
Probably one of the few not excited about Onyewu coming in...
Could really go for a Graham Zusi right now.
I think this play-whatever-position-you-like offense isn't in our best interest. I see some pros but largely unproductive for us. [[My first ever RT?]]
Defense always looking for lateral pass. Nothing forward.
Wondo! This will be exciting!
Oh wait Wondo is gonna get destroyed by those massive CBs... Maybe. TBD. [[Not a factor]]
Why did we have more scoring chances against Brazil than Canada? Well clearly Canada is more focused on their D than Brazil
Canada should have best us. [[beat*]]
Booking it to Chipotle for comfort food. [[Was delicious]]
Alexi Lalas had an interesting tweet that if this were group play, America would have 4 points with a +1 goal differential. Not too shabby but I think we were all looking for 6 if not 7 points.
The time for figuring out things is coming to and end for America and the first games that the results matter more than player performances is near.
Player Ratings
+7.6 - Goodson - 88% (10…8.8/1.2…90') - Really excels in a physical game. Not so much in a technical game. But nevertheless he dominated Canada's forwards and almost got a goal. Great game.
+4.6 - Gomez - 79% (8…6.3/1.7…80') - I love his runs to the corner flag to drag the central defenders. A more aggressive offense would have exploited the space that Gomez created.
+3.9 - Howard - 80% (6.5…4.6/1.9…90') - Handled everything and might have pulled off the save that Canada missed from just yards away with his positioning and shape. Who knows.
+3.5 - Bocanegra - 79% (6…4.7/1.3…62') - Same as Goodson, honestly. Minus the almost-goal-part.
+2.5 - Castillo - 63% (9.5…6/3.5…90') - Most player reviews from other people will say something like, "Was great in the attack but was exposed on the defense." I can't deal with that. If one of our weaker players is nearest our goal… No sir. I think he teamed well with Torres alright but I don't really see him as a big step above Bornstein, to be blunt. I would rather Castillo play LW than Torres though. He has a killer touch with good speed. And our wing depth pool is pretty low.
+1.9 - Onyewu - 82% (3…2.5/0.5…28') - The fans celebrated their typical "Goooooch!" cry but I was thrilled with his appearance. Against Canada, similar to Goodson and Bocanegra, he will be fine. Against a quick, smart team, he will not.
+1.7 - Bradley - 59% (9.5…5.6/3.9…90') - Hardly advanced the offense and practically played a fifth defender. Really boring to watch.
+1.4 - Dempsey - 58% (9…5.2/3.8…90') - Clearly exhausted and walked even more than usual. Never took anyone on and saw him fight for space/the ball only a few times.
+1.2 - Cherundolo - 58% (7.5…4.4/3.2…80') - Also hardly pushed forward. Was content on defending a sparse attack.
+1.1 - Donovan - 57% (8…4.6/3.4…73') - I don't think Marcello was the main reason for Donovan's not awful/not great game against Brazil. It didn't help that Cherundolo sat back but he never really challenged the defense and way too many of his crosses/set pieces hit a defender before reaching its desired target. He has to gauge the height of his balls better, to put it bluntly. (This is such an odd thing for me to say because we know he can do it so well.)
+1 - Altidore - 66% (3…2/1…28') - I was excited to see him take on the big Canadian CBs but he played toward the wing or as a reserved striker. Played a couple of nice balls, which was interesting to see from Altidore.
+1 - Jones - 55% (10…5.5/4.5…90') - Touch was off all night
and turned the ball over a ton. Out of fairness he had little options to
play to and he did create some chances on goal.
+0.2 - Wondolowski - 61% (1…0.6/0.4…10') - Didn't really get to do anything. = { /
+0.2 - Edu - 58% (1.5…0.9/0.6…17') - Ran around.
-0.1 - Parkhurst - 45% (1…0.5/0.6…10') - Got beat on the right side a couple of times in only ten minutes. Not good. A Goodson/Parkhurst pairing would be interesting in the middle.
-0.9 - Torres - 43% (6.5…2.8/3.7…62') - I'm having trouble understanding why Torres isn't translating to the wing better. He has the speed, the ability to play a crossing ball, the vision to make an off the ball run… I don't know, something isn't clicking. It's like he's thinking too much on the ball and his hesitation results in a turnover or a conservative pass. I like him a lot (one of my favorite players to watch) but the CM is a crowded field and we could really use a strong winger.
