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January 25, 2012

USA vs Panama: Recap, Player Ratings, and Stats

New here and all the jargon a bit overwhelming? Been coming back for some time and the jargon is still overwhelming? Then check out the stat definitions to (hopefully) get a better grasp on things.

A lucky bounce jotted its way to a backpost Graham Zusi annnd... that was about it. No that's not true, it just felt like it. Geoff Cameron picked up a questionable red card in the 52th minute and that basically stagnated the entire US offense. You can check out the highlights here, along with EVERY US SOCCER HIGHLIGHT EVER here.

A lot of players had notable games. Rimando got put in tough situations and fought his way out of them. I thought the CBs were strong albeit more tested. And Zusi, wow what an engine he has, not to mention a poised goal in the mix. And Wondolowski was limited on minutes but put in a solid, hungry performance as well.

Panama came out with a much higher attacking line than Venezuela and the US had trouble reacting to it. A lot of sloppy, hurried play. They looked to beat their visitors by countering quickly with through and over the top balls in the first half, then switched to more of a crossing game in the second half. US pushed with their outside backs, seeming to be a staple of their attack now, while the top strikers checked to play and ran off the ball.



Player Ratings


+4 - Parkhurst - (10…7/3…90') - Under much more pressure but dealt with it well. Usually had to bail out another defender's mistakes.

+3.9 - Zusi - (7.5…5.7/1.8…66') - Would have had the highest +/- had he finished the game. Like I said, clutch goal. In the right place at the right time. One of the few players who didn't look tired after halftime.

+3.5 - Jones - (11.5…7.5/4…90') - Some sloppy play but the offense went through him every time. Biggest asset was probably his experience and verbal directions.
 
+3.5 - Wondolowski - (5.5…4.0/1.5…55') - Robbed of a goal. Unfortunately had to be pulled out after Cameron's card to get another defender on the field.
 

 +5.9 - DeLaGarza - (10.5...8.2/2.3...90') - Got up the field and showed his footwork against a passive defender.

+5.6 - Shea - (11...8.3/2.7...90') - Smart crosses and created two positive chances on goal in the first half then went flat in the second half.

+5 - Jones - (12...8.5/3.5...90') - Everything went through him. Some hiccups but nothing costly. Was in great form. Wasted a FK at the end but sent beautiful corners into the mix.

+3.8 - Feilhaber - (7.2...5.5/1.7...62') - Earned the #10 jersey. Almost drew a penalty multiple times on a corner. Played a great ball to Shea for a one-on-one.

+2.5 - Zusi - (7.5...5/2.5...74') - Wasn't on the same page with the rest of the team. A little bit too aggressive? Not sure. Loved the hustle, though.

+2.3 - Pearce - (6.7...4.5/2.2...72') - Play went to the right side more and when it came to the left he did his job.

+2.2 - Wondolowski - (3...2.6/0.4...28') - Should have started over Bunbury, in hindsight.


+1.6 - Clark - (7…4.3/2.7…67') - Looked better in the second half, interestingly enough. Didn't really contribute a ton defensively and didn't really do anything worthwhile for the offense. Safe play but nothing inspiring.

+1.6 - Rimando - (5…3.3/1.7…45') - Some great play and some scary please-don't-do-that play. Definitely bailed out the defense multiple times though.

+1.5 - Larentowicz - (2.5…2/0.5…23') - Came in as a late sub and did more for the offense in those few minutes than Shea and Bunbury did combined. Off the ball runs, composed play.

+1.1 - Cameron - (6.5…3.8/2.7…55') - Questionable red card, yes, but still looked out of shape previous to that. Had trouble handling the quick counter.

+1.1 - Parke - (3.5…2.3/1.2…35') - Nothing different from what Cameron had to offer. Good play mixed with a couple mistakes.
 
+1.1 - Evans - (2.5…1.8/0.7…24') - Really wished he could see better opportunities than spare change of minutes for a ten man team. Energetic and played the wing well.
 

+1.1 - Sapong - (1.5…1.3/0.2…14') - Played the solo striker much more efficiently than Bunbury. Held the ball and knew when/where to pass.

+1 - Pearce - (5…3/2…49') - Came in for an injured Zach Loyd. Offensively sound, defensively decent. Had trouble tracking back in the late stages.

+0.5 - Loyd - (4.5…2.5/2…41') - Exactly what Klinsmann is looking for in the attacking third; not what Klinsmann is looking for in the defensive third. Blew two critical offside traps.


+0.5 - Johnson - (2.5…1.5/1…45')
- Ill-timed punch but covered the goal besides that.


+0 - DeLaGarza - (9…4.5/4.5…90') - Exposed. Mentally not quick enough against this press.

-0.5 - Shea - (8.5…4/4.5…90') - Lagging the entire time. Could see the picture but couldn't physically get there. Not sure why he finished the game.

-2.9 - Bunbury - (7.5…2.3/5.2…76')
- Trying to remember a worse US performance that I've seen. Bornstein in GC final, Castillo against Mexico... Could do almost nothing for the offense except take obtrusively large touches.




 

Subjective Point Graphs
First Half 
 
USA - 32.57
Panama - 49.70

Second Half
 

USA - 5.57
Panama - 37.53
Full Game  
USA - 38.14
Panama - 87.23 


Momentum Graph
First Half

Dominance
USA - 20.0
Venezuela - 13.3
None - 66.7
GG Rating -  55.6


Dominance
USA - 0.0
Venezuela - 11.1
None - 88.9
GG Rating -  55.6







How to Beat Panama 1-0 (with Ten Men)

1. Know How to Bring the Ball Out of the Back
 2. Have an Outside Back and Winger Play on the Same Club Team (Also Know How to Play 1-2 Balls)
 3. Have a Striker Who Can't Hold onto the Ball (Pt. I)
4. Watch Ricardo Clark Get Trucked
5. Have Your Opponent Check for the Referee Before Getting Up After an "Injury"
6. Miscommunication on the Back Four (Pt. I)
7. Have a Striker Who Can't Hold onto the Ball (Pt. II)
 8. Get Really Close to Scoring
9. Put Springs in Your Goalie's Cleats
10. Have a Referee Miss a Pretty Blatant Yellow Card11. Have a Goalie Bail Out Sleepy Defending
12. Have a Striker Shoot When He Shouldn't
13. Shoot the Referee with Lasers
14. Have a Striker Who Can't Hold onto the Ball (Pt. III)
15. Miscommunication on the Back Four (Pt. II)
16. Have an Unfortunate Red Card

:::::::::::::::::::

1. Know How to Bring the Ball Out of the Back - Shea does a great job of pulling the ball back and trusting in his back line. It relieves pressure on the midfield and the US can start without fear.


2. Have an Outside Back and Winger Play on the Same Club Team (Also Know How to Play 1-2 Balls) - It's nice that Loyd and Shea are familiar with each other but they're also just aware of the field. The play goes for squat but it's still a penetrating pass nonetheless.


3. Have a Striker Who Can't Hold onto the Ball (Pt. I) - Bunbury holds the ball, which is what he's supposed to do in a 4-5-1, but he dribbles backwards about five yards and into Panama. (Not what he's supposed to do.)


4. Watch Ricardo Clark Get Trucked


5. Have Your Opponent Check for the Referee Before Getting Up After an "Injury"


6. Miscommunication on the Back Four (Pt. I) - For all the offense Loyd brings to the table he can't be doing this junk.


7. Have a Striker Who Can't Hold onto the Ball (Pt. II) - Ugh, Bunbury.


8. Get Really Close to Scoring - Jones takes a confident shot from 40 yards out and Wondolowski is the only one who feels like following it up.


9. Put Springs in Your Goalie's Cleats - Wow what a bizarre play by Rimando. Just wait for the bounce then play what happens.





10. Have a Referee Miss a Pretty Blatant Yellow Card - Frustrating more so from Panama than the ref.


11. Have a Goalie Bail Out Sleepy Defending - Clark falls down or something. Not sure what he's doing. Rimando makes a leg save to keep it at 0.


12. Have a Striker Shoot When He Shouldn't - Bunbury do something right.


13. Shoot the Referee with Lazers


14. Have a Striker Who Can't Hold onto the Ball (Pt. III) -
Pretty confused why Bunbury makes this head-down decision. Was he a spy?


15. Miscommunication on the Back Four (Pt. II) - Cameron is a little high for the other two being so far back... Not sure who that's on.


16. Have an Unfortunate Red Card - The Panamanian Striker takes a slight touch to his right and with Cameron tracking back the two get caught up. Not thrilled about the call.



January 22, 2012

USMNT Hopefuls - 1.22.12

A lot of tweaks this edition, which is call for the quick re-post.
  • I bumped the qualification for the list to be under ten caps, instead of under five. (Brek Shea is on this list despite just hitting ten caps against Venezuela but I wanted to have his name down at least once. And he has great hair.) Under five caps was kinda boring and limiting a fair number of players off the list that hadn't really solidified their spot with the senior team yet.
  • I switched from purely guessing to a straight formula. This should keep me more consistent in my predictions but as I'm entering in subjective info the bias will remain (thankfully). The formula is centered around player growth paralleled in FIFA 12. I gave every player a rating, very similar to FIFA's if not exact, and extracted their growth. Every year until they turned 27 they got a +2. Then I subtracted 65 from their rating, capping it at 78, at that's how many appearances I projected. There are some more minor adjustments to account for a variety of stuff. Let's take Omar Salgado as an example because he has a really cool last name:

We could argue about a lot of things but if he progresses as above and stays healthy I think the numbers would be fairly accurate.
  • The numbers took a huge jump. There's a bit of skepticism from even me when I read that Bobby Wood is set to get 143 caps. There are about 12-15 games a year and I'm saying someone with zero caps is going to play near-full time for the next ten years? Well, yes. Let's take a look at the most capped list for America all-time:
1. Cobi Jones - 164 - (1992–2004)
2. Landon Donovan - 138 - (2000–2011) **Should finish around 180
3. Jeff Agoos - 134 - (1988–2003)
4. Marcelo Balboa - 128 - (1988–2000)
5. Claudio Reyna - 112 - (1994–2006)
6. Paul Caligiuri - 110 - (1984–1997)
7. Eric Wynalda - 106 - (1990–2000)
8. Kasey Keller - 102 - (1990–2007)
9. Earnie Stewart - 101 - (1990–2004)
10. Joe-Max Moore - 100 - (1992–2002)
10. Carlos Bocanegra - 100 - (2001–2011) **Should finish around 115
10. Tony Meola - 100 - (1988–2002)
Now let's parallel Wood's projected caps to Donovan's and Bocanegra's at the same age:

Donovan got a really early start on his capping while Bocanegra was relatively late -- only ten by 25 years old. So putting someone at 140+ caps isn't inconceivable (I'm watching Princess Bride right now).
(According to ussoccer.com Bocanegra got 28 caps in one year, which I'm not exactly sure about that but even typo aside I think we get the point.)
So while we've only had 12 players ever to hit the century milestone, they've all come within fifteen years. So naturally in the next fifteen years you would think the squad would witness fifteen players reach the milestone. Even with Beasley, Dempsey, Cherundolo, and Howard likely to top the list, I'm not afraid to guess that another seventeen will join them.
All that said, the formula doesn't really take into account injuries, clubs not letting their players play international games on a whim, or sitting number two in the depth chart behind a world class player. So Hamid's numbers will likely be no where near this guess. But I can't really type in "=IF(starter="Tim Howard",expectedcaps-expectedcaps*.99,expectedcaps)" into Excel.
Top 21:
predicted caps. player - pos - (club) - age

142. Bobby Wood - ST - (1860 Munich - Germany.1) - 19.1
138. Joseph Gyau - ST - (1899 Hoffenheim - Germany.2) - 19.3
137. Omar Salgado - ST - (Vancouver Whitecaps) - 18.3
136. Brek Shea - M - (FC Dallas) - 21.9 ** now has ten caps
130. Bill Hamid - GK - (D.C. United) - 21.1
130. Perry Kitchen - D - (D.C. United) - 19.9
128. Jack McInerney - ST - (Philadelphia Union) - 19.4
128. Josh Gatt - RW - (Molde FK - Norway.1) - 20.4
128. Kelyn Rowe - CM - (New England Revolution) - 20.0
125. Sebastian Lletget - M - (West Ham United) - 19.3
124. Timmy Chandler - OB - (FC Nurnberg - Germany.1) - 21.8
117. Greg Garza - LB - (Tijuana - Mexico.1) - 20.4
116. Teal Bunbury - ST - (Sporting Kansas City) - 21.9
115. Mikkel Diskerud - M - (Stabaek - Norway.1) - 21.2
114. Terrence Boyd - ST - (Hertha BSC - Germany.2) - 20.9
112. Zarek Valentin - D - (Montreal Impact) - 20.4
112. Eric Lichaj - OB - (Aston Villa - England.1) - 23.1
98. Danny Williams - M - (1899 Hoffenheim - Germany.2) - 22.8
98. Corey Hertzog - ST - (New York Red Bulls) - 21.4
96. Andrew Wegner - D - (Montreal Impact) - 21.0
92. Amobi Okugo - CDM - (Philadelphia Union) - 20.8
A little something on some of the players:
I saw Bobby Wood play with the U20s and I loved him. The team went incredibly flat when he left (I think it was because of an injury). Pretty much inserted himself in every play and carried a Miles Austin-smile the entire time. The forward is in Germany at the moment, which is another plus under Klinsmann's watch...
Gyau. Another U20 prospect. Creative with speed, not just one or the other...
Eric Lichaj is still recovering from an injury but I think he can make a strong run at the starting XI at RB or possibly LB come 2014...
Still have yet to see Terrence Boyd outside of highlights but he looks promising and all the reports are raving about him...
I really like Greg Garza's approach to the game. Very composed and fits nicely in a defense. Interesting that he is going to Mexico to play club ball. I'm probably a little bit too high on him at the moment but we'll see...
I listed Wegner as a defender just so I didn't have "ST/D" written down. Seemed kinda silly...